The global renewable energy boom has been much talked about. Led by China, the U.S., and India, solar energy installations have exploded over the past decade, with total capacity reaching 2.2 Terawatts (TW) in 2024, 11x the 177 GW capacity in 2014.

Amid this boom, one region stands out for the vast underestimation of figures: Africa. Although Africa’s share of global solar power installations is generally known to be a few percent, we think the region’s growth has been vastly underestimated. The prime case study is Nigeria.

A quick search for Nigeria’s installed solar capacity yields widely varying figures, ranging from 144 MW to 386 MW. We consider this a gross underestimate. 

This underestimate occurs because, unlike in most countries where solar power is installed in large commercial plants connected to the grid, most Nigerian solar installations are in smaller, non-grid-connected systems serving households and businesses. These systems are largely unregistered, and there’s no central agency collecting the data.

China is the world’s largest exporter of solar panels and, unsurprisingly, the largest exporter of solar panel systems to Nigeria, according to customs data. After analyzing customs data, the U.K.-based energy think tank Ember recently found that Nigeria imported 1.7 GW of solar panels in the 12 months leading up to June 2025. That placed it as Africa’s second-largest solar panel importer, behind only South Africa, the continent’s most industrialized country and long the leading solar power installer. 

In December 2025, Abba Aliyu, the managing director of the Nigerian Rural Electrification Agency (REA), a government agency tasked with installing decentralized solar-powered microgrids in unserved areas, stated that Nigeria imported 82 MW of solar panels in October 2025 alone, plus 110 MW of solar cells to be assembled into panels by local manufacturers.

Surely, 386 MW is a gross underestimate for a country that imported 1.7 GW of solar panels in 12 months leading to June 2025 and 82 MW in October 2025 alone. Notably, importing solar panels isn’t the same as installing them for immediate use, but even accounting for long-term inventory storage, unsold panels, and systems resold to neighboring countries, 386 MW remains a gross underestimate. That figure came from the Africa Solar Industry Association (AFSIA) Africa Solar Outlook 2025 report, which acknowledged that it counted only large commercial installations and not small-scale residential or commercial systems.

However, the AFSIA’s Africa Solar Outlook 2026 report has released new figures that incorporate Chinese customs export data. The report places Nigeria’s installed solar capacity at 4,816 MW, 12x the 386 MW figure cited by the same AFSIA the previous year. We think this updated figure is a more realistic estimate.

For context, 4,816 MW is almost on par with Nigeria’s peak grid capacity of 5,801 MW and exceeds the average daily supply of 4,367 MW in the fourth quarter of 2025 (source: NERC). There’s a bit of an Apples-to-Oranges comparison, given that solar power is only available during the day, unlike the national grid supply, which works all hours (powered by natural gas and hydroelectricity). Yet, it indicates that during peak sunlight hours of 11 am to 3 pm, solar panels deliver almost as much electricity, if not more, than the national grid.

Nigeria’s solar generation really took off in 2023, after the new administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu scrapped fuel subsidies. The subsidy removal led to petrol and diesel price hikes, prompting Nigerians to seek a more affordable electricity generation source. Solar provided the answer, particularly at a time of historically low solar panel prices sourced from Chinese manufacturers.

Since 2023, Nigeria’s solar power capacity has risen rapidly. City residents, particularly in Abuja and Lagos, can attest to seeing solar panels installed on rooftops across many streets. This solar boom has occurred in plain sight, yet isn’t accurately tracked because most installations are small-scale systems (<50 kW) serving households and businesses.

Nigeria’s solar power boom mirrors that of Pakistan, the poster child for an unprecedented solar power revolution. A perfect storm of record-high grid power prices and record-low panel prices from neighboring China prompted many Pakistani households and businesses to install solar panel systems to save on energy costs. 

As in Nigeria, Pakistani figures vary because they mainly come from small-scale residential and commercial systems, but experts estimate the country’s installed solar power capacity at 29 GW, compared to 49 GW from the grid (dominated by natural gas and coal power plants). According to a senior Pakistani government official, decentralized rooftop solar power generation could exceed grid demand in some industrial regions by 2026. Nigeria is on the same trajectory, but on a lesser scale than Pakistan.

Given the persistent bottlenecks in the Nigerian electricity grid, many businesses resorted to generating their own power to avoid business disruptions. For industrial powerhouses, like the Dangote Group and BUA Group, gas-fired power plants were the go-to solution. However, for households and small and mid-sized businesses, diesel and petrol-powered generators were long the answer (at much higher costs than gas-fired generation)– the removal of fuel subsidies flipped that script, and solar energy, paired with battery storage systems, is increasingly becoming the answer.

Although installing solar panels and battery storage systems has high upfront costs, they save considerable long-term costs compared to running petrol or diesel generators. Figures suggest the cost of solar-generated electricity in Nigeria to be $0.487 to $0.775 per kWh, the standard unit for purchasing electricity, compared to $2.368 per kWh for diesel generators. At less than 3x the cost of diesel and petrol generation, that represents major cost savings over time.

What’s clear is that the solar revolution has been kick-started in Nigeria and won’t stop soon. It just happens to be hiding in plain sight rather than being in the limelight.

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